Brendan Hoffman

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Saving the Indus River

The Baglihar Dam, a hydroelectric power project on the Chenab River, stands in the valley behind patrons of a roadside cafe on Wednesday, August 9, 2017 in Baglihar, Jammu & Kashmir, India. The Chenab River is one of the tributaries of the Indus.

Suresh Das, 25, a graduate student studying glaciers at Jawaharlal Nehru University, on the accumulation zone of the Menthosa glacier on Friday, August 18, 2017 on Mt. Menthosa, Himachal Pradesh, India. Das and a team of other graduate students will spend approximately two weeks studying the Menthosa glacier, the meltwaters of which ultimately feed the Indus River.

A woman harvests cotton on Sunday, November 19, 2017 in Tiba Sultanpur, Punjab, Pakistan. Cotton is a very water-intensive crop to grow, but it is a major agricultural commodity for Pakistan; the cotton and textile industries bring more than half of Pakistan's foreign exchange earnings.

Boat drivers on the Indus River on Monday, November 27, 2017 in Sehwan Sharif, Sindh, Pakistan. The Indus and its tributaries form the backbone of Pakistan's fresh water supply, and a series of river-fed canals irrigate the fields that support much of the country's agriculture. Today, a rapidly-growing population is straining water supplies, while tensions with India, from which the Indus flows, threaten to further reduce the flow.

A cart pulled by a camel delivers recently-picked cotton to Qalandri Cotton Ginning and Pressing Factory on Tuesday, November 28, 2017 in Bhan, Sindh, Pakistan. Cotton and textiles make up a significant portion of Pakistan's GDP, and bring a majority of the country's foreign exchange earnings.

Young workers at Qalandri Cotton Ginning and Pressing Factory pose for a picture on Tuesday, November 28, 2017 in Bhan, Sindh, Pakistan. Cotton is a very water-intensive crop to grow, but it is a major agricultural commodity for Pakistan; the cotton and textile industries bring more than half of Pakistan's foreign exchange earnings.

A woman harvests cotton on Sunday, November 19, 2017 in Tiba Sultanpur, Punjab, Pakistan. They typically earn $4-5 per day for the work, contributing to a textile industry that brings the majority of Pakistan's foreign exchange earnings.

Villagers in the Miyar Valley harvest peas on Wednesday, August 16, 2017 in Tingrat, India. Above them is the Menthosa glacier, which provides water for their crops before flowing down the Miyar to the Chandra and ultimately the Indus River.

Men along the Chenab River on Saturday, November 18, 2017 in Bosan, Pakistan. The Chenab is one of the tributaries of the Indus River.

Mir Muhammad, a boat driver on Manchar Lake, on Monday, November 27, 2017 in Manchar, Sindh, Pakistan. Due to the lake becoming more polluted and a reduction in the fresh water inflow from the Indus River, the fish count in the lake is way down, forcing many residents off their boats. The lake was once a popular stopover for migrating birds, but with fewer fish to feed on, the birds have gone elsewhere.

Kareeman Mallah, 24, who lives on a boat in the floating village on Manchar Lake, prepares to hunt birds on Monday, November 27, 2017 on Manchar Lake, Sindh, Pakistan. Due to the lake becoming more polluted and a reduction in the fresh water inflow from the Indus River, the fish count in the lake is way down, forcing many residents off their boats. The lake was once a popular stopover for migrating birds.

Local villagers, most of whom belong to one extended family, threshing rice on Tuesday, November 28, 2017 in Khairpur Nathan Shah, Sindh, Pakistan. Sindh receives little rain outside of the monsoon season, and most agriculture is made possible by irrigation canals that draw water from the Indus River and its tributaries, or from an underground aquifer that is rapidly depleting.

Fishermen weigh dried fish on Friday, December 1, 2017 in Keti Bandar, Pakistan. At the very tip of the Indus River delta, fishing is no longer as lucrative as it once was, due to reduced river flows and fewer fish. As a result, fishermen are forced to go out of the river and into the Arabian Sea; occasionally, Pakistani fishermen stray accidentally into Indian territorial waters, where they can be arrested and detained.

Sant Balbir Singh Seechewal, a Sikh guru, gives a tour of the local water treatment plant he created on Saturday, August 5, 2017 in Seechewal, Punjab, India. Baba Ji's method of treating polluted local waterways in order to purify the water and redirect it for agriculture and recharging groundwater aquifers has come to be known as the Seechewal Model, and is being implemented across Punjab and elsewhere in India. Its cost-effectiveness and simplicity offer hope for addressing ever-increasing water needs sustainably.

An Indian Army soldier watches over the crowds assembling to watch the daily Wagah border ceremony at the frontier with Pakistan on Sunday, August 6, 2017 in Attari, Punjab, India. Each day at sunset, the two countries stage an elaborate flag-lowering ceremony to mark the closing of the border for the day, one of very few points at which it is possible to cross between the rival countries. Large crowds gather to watch the theatrics, cheering in a rowdy display of patriotism.

A man tidies up around a trailer of recently-picked cotton on Sunday, November 19, 2017 in Tiba Sultanpur, Punjab, Pakistan. Cotton is a very water-intensive crop to grow, but it is a major agricultural commodity for Pakistan; the cotton and textile industries bring more than half of Pakistan's foreign exchange earnings.

Women climb onto a trailer pulled by a tractor after harvesting cotton on Sunday, November 19, 2017 in Tiba Sultanpur, Punjab, Pakistan. They typically earn $4-5 per day for the work.

The Menthosa base camp, where a half-dozen graduate students from Jawaharlal Nehru University will spend approximately two weeks researching the Menthosa glacier, the meltwaters of which ultimately feed the Indus River, on Thursday, August 17, 2017 on Mt. Menthosa, India.

A truck delivering recently-picked cotton is unloaded at Usman Marvandi Cotton Industries on Tuesday, November 28, 2017 in Bubak, Sindh, Pakistan. Cotton is a very water-intensive crop to grow, but it is a major agricultural commodity for Pakistan; the cotton and textile industries bring more than half of Pakistan's foreign exchange earnings.

Men work a cotton gin at the Ayub Agricultural Research Institute on Wednesday, November 22, 2017 in Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan. The institute is one of several around the country where scientists are attempting to develop new cotton varieties that will thrive with less water and in the higher temperatures climate change is expected to bring.

A man hangs freshly-dyed fabric to dry at Liberty Market on Saturday, November 25, 2017 in Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan. The cotton and textile industries bring more than half of Pakistan's foreign exchange earnings.

A funeral service at a Sikh gurdwara along the banks of the Beas River on Monday, August 7, 2017 in Beas, India. During a Sikh funeral, the creatated remains are deposited in flowing water, and the Beas is considered a holy river. It is one of the tributaries of the Indus River.

A woman who lives on a boat in the floating village on Manchar Lake on Monday, November 27, 2017 in Manchar, Pakistan.

Boys carry containers to fetch water near Manchar Lake on Monday, November 27, 2017 in Manchar, Pakistan. The lake has become much more polluted in recent decades due to reduced inflows of fresh water from the Indus River, depleting the fish stocks local residents and wildlife rely on.

Boys cool off in the cold water of a canal fed by the Chenab River on Thursday, August 10, 2017 in Jammu, Jammu & Kashmir, India. The Chenab is one of the tributaries of the Indus River, originating the glaciers of the Himalayas.

Residents of the floating village on Manchar Lake pose for a portrait with artificial birds, which they use to disguise themselves for bird hunting, on Monday, November 27, 2017 on Manchar Lake, Sindh, Pakistan. Due to the lake becoming more polluted and a reduction in the fresh water inflow from the Indus River, the fish count in the lake is way down, forcing many residents off their boats. The lake was once a popular stopover for migrating birds, but with fewer fish to feed on, the birds have gone elsewhere.

A cotton plant inside a greenhouse at the Central Cotton Research Institute on Saturday, November 18, 2017 in Multan, Punjab, Pakistan. The institute is one of several around the country where scientists are attempting to develop new cotton varieties that will thrive with less water and in the higher temperatures climate change is expected to bring.

A worker at Qalandri Cotton Ginning and Pressing Factory wraps a scarf over his face to block dust and cotton fibers on Tuesday, November 28, 2017 in Bhan, Sindh, Pakistan. Cotton is a very water-intensive crop to grow, but it is a major agricultural commodity for Pakistan; the cotton and textile industries bring more than half of Pakistan's foreign exchange earnings.

Workers tend to power looms, which weave cotton thread into cloth, on Wednesday, November 22, 2017 in Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan. The cotton and textile industries bring more than half of Pakistan's foreign exchange earnings.

A worker on the fabric dying line at MK Sons, a textile factory, on Wednesday, November 22, 2017 near Khurianwala, Punjab, Pakistan. The cotton and textile industries bring more than half of Pakistan's foreign exchange earnings.

Luvjeet, 22, cleans the area around the communal water supply in the Chandigarh Basti area on Sunday, August 6, 2017 in Sultanpur Lodhi, India. All locals come to this one spot to do laundry and wash dishes, while the wastewater is drained into a simple treatment facility constructed on the Seechewal model.

Weeds grow in an area flooded by raw sewage in the Chungi neighborhood on Tuesday, November 21, 2017 in Lahore, Pakistan. Twenty years ago, this area was all agricultural land, but pollution ruined the fertility of the soil. It has been taken over by unplanned construction for working-class residents, posing major challenges for sanitation.

Nisham Singh, 45, a truck driver, bathes at a well adjacent to the Beas River on Monday, August 7, 2017 in Beas, India. The Beas is a tributary of the Indus River.

A man fills bottles with water at a community tap on Monday, November 20, 2017 in Lahore, Pakistan. Many parts of the city do not have running water in every house, and in those that do the water is unsafe to drink.

Fishermen haul in a net at Sea View Beach on Wednesday, November 29, 2017 in Karachi, Pakistan. Karachi, with a population topping 20 million, is almost completely dependent on the Indus River for water for its residents. The river empties into the Arabian Sea nearby.

A market stall selling fish from Keenjhar Lake on Friday, December 1, 2017 in Thatta, Sindh, Pakistan. The lake is an important stopover point for migrating birds, but its health is affected by reduced inflow from the Indus River, meaning there are fewer fish for the birds as well as for people.

Boys play in the water at the Holy Kali Bein River, the birthplace of Sikhism, on Saturday, August 5, 2017 in Sultanpur Lodhi, Punjab, India. The cleaning and restoration of the site was one of the first projects of Sikh guru Sant Balbir Singh Seechwal.

India/Pakistan 2017

The Indus River, one of Asia's longest, originates largely in the Himalayan glaciers of India before crossing the border and flowing the length of Pakistan. It is used for extensive irrigation of commercial and food crops, industry, and to provide hydroelectric power. It is a vital resource for both countries, yet several factors are making heavy reliance on the Indus increasingly difficult to sustain.

First, the Indus flows from Pakistan's rival India, which thanks to an extensive and growing dam network has the power to drastically reduce the water allowed through to Pakistan. A 1960 treaty defines which Kashmiri headwaters India and Pakistan control, though recent military disputes and disagreements over India's efforts to utilize the river in its territory have raised questions about its ability and intention to essentially weaponize water.

Second, climate change is affecting the monsoon rains and many of the glaciers that are the source of half the river's water, throwing into doubt both India's and Pakistan's long-term economic dependence on the river. Paradoxically, this has contributed to recent flooding as some glaciers melt more than normal, but once they have shrunk water flows will be less than necessary to sustain the economy built on the Indus. Only a small fraction of the thousands of glaciers feeding the Indus have been studied in a meaningful way, and so the ultimate consequences of climate change are poorly understood.

Finally, Pakistan, with a rapidly growing population, has the most water-intensive economy in the world, and is already water-stressed based on the amount of fresh water available per person. Its economic reliance on the Indus is extreme; in addition to rice and wheat, the water-intensive cotton and textile industries make up a significant part of its GDP and foreign exchange earnings. Major changes are necessary to make agriculture and irrigation more efficient, yet to do so will require scientific advances and taking on corrupt interests unlikely to yield.

As the political and economic stakes continue to grow, will the dispute over the Indus launch a water war?